Saturday, March 14, 2015

Enjoy the weekend, models starting to sniff things out

I will cut a video Sunday night w updates but models are starting to sniff out some mischief for next weekend in northern mid Atlantic and new England we will see how this trends based on the pattern I've been discussing


  1. Looks like that key NAO situation is a bit uncertain. The NOAA ESRL panel is back, showing NAO definitely in a neg phase from 3/16 thru 3/21. But the NOAA MRF ensembles for today keep it in + zone just above the 0 line thru that period, for almost all runs. Was looking at Canadian and US ensembles for the 21st-22nd weekend; most are wet, but only a few have snow over northern NJ. But not impossible, of course, given that we are one week out. The basic pattern seems in place, i.e. big ridge over AK and west coast, cold air pouring down from Canada, moist flow from southern states turns northeast and forms a bombing low off the coast. But the speeds and timing of it all is obviously problematic, esp given the high NAO uncertainty. The main CMC run right now imagines the southern flow moisture running into the cold trough, but the snowfall happens mostly in south NJ; the storm track slant looks more like 30 degrees from latitude line. The main GFS run keeps the snow pretty far to the north; track slant looks closer to 60 degrees. Is the Euro coming in between the two? Either way, doesn't look like a whole lot of potential accumulation, maybe 3 to 6 inch range at worst. From a personal perspective, though, at this point I'd like to see one last hurrah for winter. I want to be reminded that we've earned those daffodils and crocuses, once they finally get here (and delay them a bit too -- over the past decade or so, they seem to happen too early). So for once, I'm with you on this one, Willy!! Let it snow, let it snow . . . Jim G

    1. The best we can do is just follow the pattern and iron out the storm (if any) as we get closer.. I think NYC North has shot at snow for further south it's tough. To be honest I'm not looking at surface model print-outs on models yet but will start to by Monday. I think we get the negative NAO and once that thing relaxes a little is when a storm tends to form which cold be the weekend or early next week. Not guaranteed obviously but fun to watch given the pattern. Yes let it snow one more time!