Tuesday, March 17, 2015

A Shot at Accumulating Snow Friday

As I have been discussing the pattern is ripe for winter weather as we head into this weekend. I laid out the reasons why over the last several posts. The models are now starting to flirt with the idea of a storm system to effect the region on Friday. A lot of details still need to be worked out but right now here is my general idea of what could occur.

At this time I do not see a major storm treat for Friday. If this pans out it would be a moderate late season threat. Differences in models vary from a more suppressed solution on the GFS to a more robust northern solution by the Canadian. The European and UKMET are right in between. The map above is my estimate based on looking at all the data. 

The biggest part of this equation is how much of a "dig" we get from the approaching northern disturbance. You can see that disturbance below entering PA on Friday..

I will keep monitoring this situation and post updates. 

2 comments:

  1. Thanks much for the update, as always. This set up is going to be tricky, as you and all the other wx 'true brothers' (and sisters) are saying. Doesn't look like the NAO is going to cooperate, still quite +, not that likely to dip too far by Friday and Saturday. Not much of a surprise, that's been the story for the whole season. We do have the AO on our side here, could be quite negative. That polar vortex break-out loop gets pretty far south into Canada over next 5 days. But it's really tricky as to everything being in the right place at the right time for snow in NJ suburbs, given that this appears to be another fast moving moisture situation, typical over the past few months. Any Irish snow-fans out there? We could use some of your luck here, Happy St. Patrick's Day! Jim g

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Storm looking good right now Jim for NNJ into SNE...Central NJ will get some snow but sleet can be an issue but hey not bad for late March and it might not be over yet. Thanks for the comments.

      Delete