As I have been discussing the pattern is ripe for winter weather as we head into this weekend. I laid out the reasons why over the last several posts. The models are now starting to flirt with the idea of a storm system to effect the region on Friday. A lot of details still need to be worked out but right now here is my general idea of what could occur.
At this time I do not see a major storm treat for Friday. If this pans out it would be a moderate late season threat. Differences in models vary from a more suppressed solution on the GFS to a more robust northern solution by the Canadian. The European and UKMET are right in between. The map above is my estimate based on looking at all the data.
The biggest part of this equation is how much of a "dig" we get from the approaching northern disturbance. You can see that disturbance below entering PA on Friday..
I will keep monitoring this situation and post updates.