Saturday, February 7, 2015

Saturday Morning: This is My Forecast

Good morning, here is my forecast for Sunday into Tuesday. I am about to hit the slopes so I will cut a video this eve with more detail.

I like my original graphics but added accumulation amounts to them.

For Sunday..

Snow breaks out tonight for dark blue area with 3-6 inches.

By Monday a surface low develops along the front..

 Mixed precip in areas of central NJ but you guys should get some snow at the end. North Jersey is in a decent spot for some accumulating snow after some initial mixing. The jackpot for this storm is New England where an additional 6-12 inches will fall in addition to Sunday's snow. Here is my map..

I added the accumulation amounts to the map I put out the other day. Warm air is expected for the light blue region Sunday so don't be fooled if you see some rain it will change to snow in many areas by later on Monday. 

After this storm, absolute bitter cold hit the area as we head into the weekend..

These are low temps Friday morning. These are projected temps by the gfs model so obviously there can be some changes but it will def be extremely cold. 

Time to hit the snow- More tonight.


  1. Hey Willy, hope the skiing goes well. I just took a perusal of NAM, GFS and CMC-global -- for my I-280 corridor, maybe even out to your MoTown 287 zone, doesn't look like much snow thru Tuesday. Maybe not even an inch. BUT, every darn thing else in tarnation is supposed to come down: freezing rain, ice pellets, a sprinkle of regular rain, maybe some hailstones (well OK I'm pushing it there). This time I might actually prefer your snow forecast!!!

    Looked too at NAO, AO, PNA and EPO stuff. The 7-10 day forecasts seem to indicate PNA staying quite pos; but wait, EPO might reverse and go neg; thus maybe the recent parade of zonal disturbances from the Pacific will slow down? NAO looks like it will stay pos for a few days, but then it waivers, maybe goes neg, but not too deeply. The AO seems slated to go pos for a few days, and then waiver -- although no big dive negative at the end of either the 7 or 10 day runs. That's why I'm scratching my head about the big cold shot for next Friday clear thru Monday. Canadian 12Z just coming in -- if you want to know about cold air, ask the Canadians I say. Yes, they are calling for cold air, Friday thru Monday, maybe some moderation Tuesday. Reaching -18 C / 0 F on Sunday AM where I am. Thankfully this is still a week out, much can change by then (and always does with the weather!).

    But then again, Weather Centre Andrew's recent posts all call for more snow and frigid temps here over next 2 weeks. So enjoy, Willy, this is your month ! I personally may not enjoy it quite as much, but it certainly has become a very dynamic and interesting weather situation of late. And that's when I learn the most about all this good stuff. Jim G

  2. Ah, as I said, I'm still l'm learning. OK, neg EPO is a COLD weather signal. EPO 2-week projection this AM shows it staying neg, reaching minimum on Feb 16. OK, makes sense, that's the upcoming cold wave for this coming weekend into early next week. But then it marches upward towards zero around the 24th. The PNA stays quite +, but comes down after the 15th -- so maybe zonal cross-continent disturbances start abating? NAO seems to stay definitely + for next 2 weeks (yay!). AO is fairly + right now, looks like it goes to about 0 on the 14th (beginning of cold snap), but then gets + again thereafter. Accuweather long-term forecast seems to hold out hope for a gradual warming trend from the 17th to 28th. Can spring be far behind? We shall see. The next 7 or 8 days definitely belongs to you good winter-loving folk. Jim G

    1. Sorry man missed your comment last week. Hopefully we get another one Wednesday to track!