Winter Storm Outlook


Threat Level: Low
Period: Jan 27th-28th
updated 1/21

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Saturday Night Video Update on Storm

I break down tomorrow's storm in the video below. I am expecting a good thumping of snow for certain areas. I explain the reason why in the video. If this storm outperforms it will be because it is colder not warmer than modeled in my opinion, so anyone from central NJ on up be on the lookout! Enjoy!

Next update tomorrow morning right before the storm starts. My snow map from this morning is in previous post.  Also we have a lot of action in store for us this week. If you followed my posts from last week you know what I am talking about.  I will go into more detail tomorrow. 

Snowfall Forecast for Tomorrow

Good morning everyone. I have broken down and analyzed the data and below is my final snowfall prediction for tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Expect snow to breakout earlier tomorrow afternoon in most areas and continue into early morning Monday. This storm is the result of a warm moist air from the southwest running into cold air in place over our area. In addition, this storm will be enhanced by another upper level disturbance that is approaching from Canada. Due to this dynamic, I am expecting heavy snow to breakout at times in the purple region which is why the totals are higher there. Also, I favor a colder solution for those areas which is why I brought the 4-8 into North NJ. Just south of the 4-8 expect snow changing to sleet as we get to Sunday night which will hold down accumulations. South of the blue band I expect snow to change to rain. 

When all is said and done, this should be a nice moderate snowstorm for southern New England and parts of NJ. I will definitely have a video breakdown of the storm tonight around 6 pm. Be sure to tune in. 

By City/Town:

NYC 2-4" Right on boarder of heavy snow so can go either way
Boston 4-8"
Philadelphia: 1-3"
Balt/Washington: Trace
Morristown NJ: 4-8"
Whitehouse Station NJ Area: 4"
Edison NJ: 2-4"

Map Out around 1030am!

Friday, February 27, 2015

Friday Morning Comment

I put a lot of detail into yesterday's post so I will just make a few small points today. 

I think northern zones have a good shot at some accumulating snow on Sunday night. Nothing major, but I think the arctic boundary is far enough south where all of northern NJ into New England see's snow. 

As for the mid-week system all model guidance points to a rain storm for many areas with snow to rain further to the north. I am not going to comment any more on this until a few more days pass by. Sure a rain storm is possible, but with so much energy on the field and a split flow jet pattern it is very hard for the models to handle. We have learned more than once this year that jumping the gun too early in either direction is not going to result in a good forecast. I explained yesterday what would need to happen to hold the cold air in place given we have a -PNA trough in the west which normally produces a warm scenario for the east. 

Winter days are really counting down now and the good news for any snow haters is after March 15th it is pretty difficult to get a storm. We are still a few weeks away from that point so do not let your guard down. It is going to be interesting to see if this colder than normal weather pattern holds based on the pattern in the Pacific. Time will tell, but I am not on the "early spring" bandwagon". As long as we have a ridge over AK it drills down colder than normal air into the country. The warm water off the pacific coast aids in keeping that ridge in place. This is a classic positive PDO pattern. I talked about the PDO in my winter forecast. Oh by the way, I will do a review of that forecast when the season is over for anyone who is interested. 

That's all for now. 

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Thursday Morning Weather Discussion: Pattern Staying Active!

Doesn't guarantee a big snowstorm but it does gives us the chance to track a few storm systems over the next few weeks. We have a very active jet stream regime and that means we need to monitor how all the puzzle pieces will come together to forms storms. 

To start off, we have a storm system now that is going to pass to our south. It was pretty amazing how far north this thing trended since a few days back but it will not effect most of the area, just extreme south jersey will see come accumulating snow..

In the wake of this storm a big arctic high reestablishes itself over our area bringing more frigid temps as we head into the weekend. The image below shows the air temps departure from normal by Saturday morning. 

Earlier in the week I talked about how we could see a brief warm up by the time we get to late weekend/early next week but that I was not sold on a full blown March warm up. The reason is that the pacific is driving this pattern meaning that the warm water off the cost is supporting a semi permanent ridge of high pressure that is drilling down arctic air. Well, it appears that will be the same old story for March and this brief warm up will prob not occur either early next week. In fact we need to now monitor two weather systems that will effect the regions Sunday night and again for the middle of next week. Lets take a look..

As we approach Sunday night a shortwave or kink in the jet stream approaches our area..

You can see the kink entering the great lakes region above. This kink is a disturbance that will bring unsettled weather to our area. The origin of this disturbance is arctic in nature so warm air is not the issue if we just look at it alone. However, if this where to really dig in to the flow earlier then we could see southwest winds ahead of it which could warm the upper layers of the atmosphere causing mixed precipitation. I do not support that scenario at this time based on seasonal trends. I think if this thing digs more it will be later and not earlier which would preserve the cold air in place ahead of it. Bottom line, I am giving us a chance at light to moderate snow Sunday night. Here is the GFS' models projection..

Things then get very interesting as this storm passes as the jet stream really fires up. Check out all the energy on the field by the time we get to Monday night..

Yes all this energy is hanging back near the west but that storm that moves through on Sunday night can effect how this energy effects our region by the time we get to Wed and Thursday. Here is the reason why...

Naturally when we have energy hanging back near the pacific with a lack of a western ridge it could result in a surge of warmth near the east as the jet stream rises over that region. The end result is a storm that effects the central part of the country. 

However, if we have a strong area of high pressure in place to the north the storm cant just simply cut into the central US and instead slides along the boundary and redevelops along the east. 

As of  now the model is showing my point..

You can see that storm system developing in the central US with high pressure over PA. If that high pressure is allowed to slide out of region then the storm is warm for us and we get snow to ice to rain. The model is currently showing that..

But lets go back to that disturbance from Sunday night. You can see the remains of it off of eastern Canada on Tuesday.

The key here is this: If that storm really blows up over eastern Canada more than expected then it helps to lock in that high pressure area I showed two images back over PA. If that was to occur this storm Wed would be colder and snowier. This is something that we will have to monitor for sure.

As if that wasn't enough, we will have a building western ridge later next week. That means we have to be on the lookout again for unsettled weather that could naturally form further east over our region.

The bottom line is this: 

  • Very active weather over next 10 days
  • Each wave of weather will effect the next wave due to it's influence on the pressure pattern
  • This doesn't mean we get a lot of snow but it gives us a shot at more winter weather
  • Cold air looks like its here to stay although it will moderate with the season in March
Thanks for checking in. 

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Post coming this eve

Not an awful lot to add, that storm is flirting w the southern zones but I do not think it turns up the coast.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Tuesday Morning Update

Too bad we will miss the mid-week storm, it def had some potential. Expect cold conditions to continue through the week and a warmer conditions arriving by the time we get to later in the weekend. I think this small warm up ends up becoming a head fake and the colder than normal conditions could prevail at least through the second week of March before spring really shows its face. In any event, we are very close to the end of winter here and as the weeks go by our chances for snowstorms will diminish rapidly. Realistically we have about 2.5 weeks left of action before it becomes very difficult to get a storm. Will this winter go out with a bang? We will have to wait and see.

I do not have much more to add today. I will keep monitoring this pattern and hone in on if I think there is anything worth talking about. This morning was another record cold morning and many locations went sub zero. In terms of temperatures the last month has really be incredible and historic. 

Monday, February 23, 2015

Monday Morning Weather Discussion

Good morning everyone. I am back into the normal routine this week so I will have more detail in my posts. Today I want to focus on the weather pattern heading into March as well as what would have to happen for a storm to occur on Wed/Thursday. At this time no storm is coming and no models show a storm. I will show what would have to change if any of you snow lovers out there are still interested in some action.

At this time all model guidance basically shows this out to sea solution..

This is due to no phase of the northern and southern jet streams, so what you end up with is a south jet stream wave heading off the coast.

The image below shows the lack of phasing of the jet streams. Notice how I pointed out how there is energy on the field, it just does not what to come together. 

Main things to focus on in this image:

  • The southern stream gets ahead of the northern stream causing the two not to phase
  • There are some positive variables on the field however with a ridge out west and a small block in the eastern Atlantic.
  • These factors could influence a potential phase if they steer and amplify the jet stream properly
    • An example of this would be a stronger block than modeled in the eastern atlantic or that ridge out west becoming more amplified
    • This would slow down the flow allowing the two disturbances to potentially combine
What is my point here? Although not likely, we can still not rule out a storm for Wed/Thursday due to the fact the right ingredients are on the field. We just would need them to come together properly and small changes to this upper air pattern can do that. Lets see how this play out next few days.

On to the longer range, there has been strong evidence that the cold weather pattern relaxes in the east as we get to March 1st.

The image above shows this. We have the ridge out west breaking down and no high pressure over Greenland. This allows a big ridge of high pressure to build in the southeast United States which would bring in much warmer temps. Notice however that the ridge over AK is still there. That is called our -EPO pattern and although models have hinted that it could back off they are still unclear. I would have to see more evidence of this ridge breaking down more before I am sold on a long duration warm up in March and winter being completely over. At this time I am not ready to say that. 

Thanks for checking in. 

Saturday, February 21, 2015

Saturday Evening Update

Well we have a snowstorm underway out there and for some areas it looks like it will stay snow. When all is said and done several inches will fall for most areas with up to 6+. Expect it all to be over as we get past  midnight. Some areas near the coast do change over at the end to ice and rain but it looks like from I95 north and west it stays snow. Originally this system looked like snow changing to ice and rain for most areas. The reason things have changed is due to pressing high pressure from the northwest along with a ridge of high pressure over the southeast  becoming weather. This allowed cold air to hold in the upper levels. I would have broke this down more over the least few days but I have been away skiing as I mentioned before. 

There is still a shot we see a storm on Wednesday but the chances are diminishing at this point. We have a strong disturbance coming through on the southern stream but nothing that looks like it wants to phase with it at this point. It is essential here that we wait for the current storm to pass as it will have drastic implications on the upper air pattern ahead of Wednesday. Upper air patterns steer storms and disturbances in the upper atmosphere as well as influence the placement of surface high an flow pressure.  For example, if this current storm blows up in the right spot near eastern Canada we can have more amplification along the east coast allowing a potential phase.

Thanks for checking in, bittern cold air returns again tomorrow and lasts all week. When I am home tomorrow night I will start having more details in these posts. 

I'll have quick commentary tomorrow morning and look at snow totals. I wish I had the time to make a map as its always interesting to see how my forecasts pan out. I guess my original call was 2-5" from my post two days ago which I tweaked upwards this morning. 

Hopefully there will be a next one!

Saturday Morning: Snow Tonight

Still skiing but quick morning update. Snow overspreads the region later this afternoon and lasts through tonight with some mixing as you go south and east of I95. Expect accumulations of at least 3-6 inches from I95 north and west and 2-4 as you go further south and east. The storm has continued to trend colder due to the southeast ridge of high pressure relaxing more than modeled initially. This will be a moderate snowstorm  for many areas before any changeover to ice and rain (might not change over north and west). I will do my best to have a video out by 5 pm with more detail as storm is underway! 

Sorry for the lack of detail and no map, but I think that sums it up.

Back to the slopes, be sure to tune in later.

Friday, February 20, 2015

Skiing For the Weekend, Quick Update on Storm

Good morning, for later Saturday into Sunday we have a colder model trend to deal with here.  Many areas should see a front end thump of snow before a change over to ice and rain briefly at the end. When it is all said and done expect a 2-5 inches in the northwest counties and lesser amount as you head towards the coast. 

Here are the conditions at 7pm Saturday, snow should start to break out later Saturday afternoon so keep that in mind. 

You can see where the accumulating snow will fall in NJ and other areas. This model projection sums up the cutoff between an initial inch or two and up to 5 inches of snow. 

At the end here is the quick changeover..

I am still eyeing Wednesday for a potential storm and will try to have more info on that later today or tonight. Sorry for the unusual lack of detail in today's post I just am looking forward to hitting the slopes. 

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Thursday Morning Discussion: Thoughts Same from Yesterday, Eyeing Wednesday

Not going to add much to my post yesterday about the brutal cold and snow changing to rain this weekend.I really do not think it is going to be a huge deal as temps will rise above freezing but I question how much liquid will actually fall. I do not expect a big ice storm or anything like that at this time as it appears any ice that falls will change to rain. On the back end however, temperatures will crash again well below freezing on Sunday. I will comment more on Sat night situation as I see necessary but for now, nothing to write home about. 

I will go into this in more details as well as the days go on but I am eyeing Wednesday for our next shot at snow. Here is a map I just put together..

What we have evidence of is a decently strong northern shortwave or disturbance diving down into the country on Tuesday. A few things interest me as this is going on.

  • We have what appears to be an active subtropical jet stream along with some left over pacific energy hanging back over the west.
    • we will have to see how much of this wants to eject eastward and potentially phase with this northern shorwave.
  • Not a true negative NAO but there is a small block that is projected to develop in the eastern atlantic which could help amplify things along the east
  • There is evidence of a vortex setting up around 50/50 but that detail is very foggy right now
  • In the best case scenario for snow, a low forms in the gulf and moves up the coast 
Bottom line, its a long shot this far out but it is the only chance I see at a storm in the next 10 days. The European and its ensembles are hinting at it as well..

European Model: Shows low developing off of coast stemming from the Gulf.

There is support from its ensemble as well..

Half the fun is tracking potential storms so we will have to stay on top of this. 

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion: Bitter Cold Followed by Weekend Storm

Lets dive right into it today, the bitter cold is relentless and will only get worse before it gets better. Check out the low temps Friday morning, yes that more sub zero..

Basically untill we get to our next storm system Saturday and Sunday expect more high in the Teens to low 20's with lows in single digits to negative values peaking on Friday.

So lets turn to our next storm system which looks like it can be a mixed bag for many areas with the exception of interior New England.

The period here will be later on Saturday into Sunday and frozen precipitation including snow can be expected in the beginning due to the cold air in place. However, this will change to ice then plain rain for some areas due to the upper air set up in place not being optimal for snow. I will watch this closely for an ice threat.

The image below explains this..

Few issues here. We have a western ridge too far off shore which causes the flow to flatten too much over the country. This flattening of the flow allows a ridge of high pressure to form downstream of the energy coming off the pacific and out of the sub tropics. Since we have no negative NAO, this storm will be allowed to cut more inland as opposed to running into blocking high pressure which would cause it to redevelop off the coast. 

Things can still change but based on all the model guidance I am looking at including the ensembles it does not look like this is a snow threat for many areas at this time (except for the start of the event). 

This next image proves my point even better. You can see the red ridge of high pressure over the east with the energy back over the plains. Notice no red over Greenland which would mean its a positive phase of the NAO. This helps support that southeast ridge. 

Moving on after we get our warmer air to filter in with this storm, cold returns next week as we get a continuation of the same bitterly cold weather pattern for eastern third..

As a refresher that massive ridge over AK allows air that is sourced from the north pole to flow down into our area. that is why it has been and will continue to be so cold. We can thank the very warm water off the west coast for this semi-permanent ridge. 

As long as it stays cold we will still have chances as more snow. I do not see any signs of this letting up until potentially after next week.

Thanks for checking in. 

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Tuesday Morning Weather Summary

Good morning. Here are latest snowfall reports from the storm..

General 1-3 inches in northern and parts of central NJ, 4-6 further south. The report is not fully updated yet but it gives you a general idea of what fell.

Moving on to tomorrow night snow showers will hit the region..

There could be a few suprises here but overall a light snow threat. 

This weekend the next storm system comes in Saturday night..

There is a lot of uncertainty with this system. Some models are cutting this more inland and some are suppressing it south. We will keep an eye on this as the week progresses. 

The cold will not let up this week. Expect frigid conditions to continue. 

More later.  

Monday, February 16, 2015

Monday Night Storm Update

Video below gives the latest on the storm that is moving towards the region. There have been some changes to the model guidance over the last 12 hours and I acknowledge the implications in the video. Bottom line: I am concerned about the snow totals being realized in the northern zones but am sticking with the forecast.

Storm Update at 8PM

Monday Morning: Tonight's Forecast

A winter storm will effect most of the region late tonight into tomorrow morning. A low pressure area will develop tonight just south of the Tennessee valley and move northeast right over Cape Hatteras and out to sea. Snow breaks out in southern zones just before midnight and after midnight in northern zones.Snow will pick up in intensity through the early morning hours accumulating several inches before ending later Tuesday morning. For southern zone expect up to 8 inches of fluffy snow and lesser amounts in northern zones.. Due to the brutally cold air mass over the region now, snow ratios will be 20 inches of snow per 1 inch of liquid in many areas. This means only 0.4 inches of liquid can produce 8 inches. This is factored into my snow map below. As a side note, for the 3-6 inch snow band expect the lower end of the range to the northwest and higher end to the southeast.

Following this storm, more brutal cold to follow. Why is it so cold? Well the simple answer is the massive ridge of high pressure out over Alaska..

The image above sums this up and in the 10 day period there is no sign that this pattern will relax. 

As an example take a look at the temperature projections for NYC over next ten days. The red line is freezing. 

As for big storm threats, there is nothing I can talk about at this time. Given the fact we have a cold pattern that will likely extend into early March, I can not rule out one significant storm (10"+) before this winter is all said and done. In the meantime, there will be more light to moderate snow events. 

Yes it has been very cold this winter and with the exception of Boston area marginally average for snowfall. The NAO has played a culprit in this as it has not really been negative at all this winter. There are no signs of it going negative anytime soon which makes me realize things do have to fall into place perfectly for a classic east coast snowstorm.

As for my winter forecast the temperature part of the equation is doing ok at this time..

The snowfall has a lot of holes to fill in except for in New England..

So lets see how the final quarter of winter plays out. I will update more on tonight's storm later today. 

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Snowfall Map for Monday Night-Tuesday Morning

Storm is going to come in earlier than originally thought.Expect snow to breakout later on Monday night and last though Tuesday morning. Moderate is the word here in terms of snowfall amounts. This is not a major storm but one that will qualify for the lower end of a winter storm warning for central and south NJ. Since it will be so cold out, expect snow ratios up to 20:1 which is factored into my accumulation projections below. Also, I left room for a trend north and brought the 3-6 inch band into north NJ and parts of southern New England. That has been the trend all winter and given the horrible performance of these models I think its necessary to anticipate model error when making a forecast. 

I will have more details first thing tomorrow morning.

PS. It is going to be so cold tonight! Wait to you see how it fells tomorrow am with the wind chills! There is no sign of this colder than normal weather pattern breaking anytime soon. I will touch on this tomorrow as well. 

Update around 2 on next storm threat and summarizing current one


2pm update

Will cut a video tonight, but basically south and central jersey balt/wash phil this might be your shot at 5-10 inches on Tuesday not Wednesday (storm is faster now).

I will discuss how I still think there is also a room for a 50 mile shift north would could bring north jersey, and southern New England in moderate accumulating snow. As of now its just light snow up there. 

Tonight will be the coldest air of the season with temps crashing below 0 in some areas with double digit negative wind chills!!

See you guys tonight. 

Saturday, February 14, 2015

Video Update on Tonight's Storm

Video takes you though the storm that will effect region tonight. Again the biggest snow threat is eastern New England but we will see some light accumulations down here in NJ. The NYC metro can see enhanced snowfall from an inverted trough tonight which can bump up totals to potentially over 6 inches. Otherwise like I have been saying this is not a major event for most areas in NJ.

I think most of the northern parts of the state sees around 3 inches with isolated spots that are more towards 6.  This will all come down to where inverted trough sets up tonight. Some models say over city and just to the west while other actually more south of NYC. In any event, it will be very cold so roads will slick up quick later tonight and into early tomorrow morning. This storm is over by daybreak in NJ Sunday. My snow map is in the video.

After this storm passes I will discuss the Wed threat in more detail tomorrow. I still like our chances. 

Snow Expectations for Tonight

Good morning. I am very pressed for time unfortunately as I have to go into work to meet a few clients. However, I want to give everyone an Idea of what to expect. My hope is I can make a map by later this afternoon (before I take the girl out for V day).

  • Significant snowstorm for eastern Mass and Maine
    • accumulations of 14-20"
  • Just to the west in Mass,Ct and RI
    • 8-12"
  • For NYC metro
    • I am calling for 3-5" extending west into NJ
    • This is a little higher than the 2-4 I originally thought
    • I still do not this this is a significant storm for NYC metro that has not changed
  • For Central NJ 1-3"

Such a interesting storm with complex features I wish I had more time this morning. It will be so cold that it wont take much to accumulate the snow. Wednesday still looks good to me as well and I want to update everyone one on that too. Crazy pattern and by the end of this month everyone should get there snow. 

Hopefully more later around 3:30

Friday, February 13, 2015

Big Update Tomorrow Morning

I will break down the New England snowstorm on Sunday and also discuss updates on the Wednesday storm potential.  Wednesday really interests me for some reason and I am going to keep on top of it.

Friday Morning: Nice Snow Storm Ahead for Parts of New England, Eyeing Middle of Next Week

It's cold out there! Don't say I did not warn you! Expect this cold to last through Monday. 

In my video last night I outlined many of my ideas so I will be brief today. Basically as I have been saying the storm this weekend will target RI, CT, Mass, and Maine. For NYC and surrounding areas I only expect light snow. Maybe some small accumulations in the city Sat night.

Here is updated model projection..

I showed last night how the upper level low was influencing this surface outcome. Accumulations of over a foot are def in the picture here for areas near the cost up there. Very high ratio snow.

So moving on to Wednesday of next week, I have been discussing the threat for a storm. In the video last night I explained a few interesting factors behind this storm.  Here is a summary of those factors below..

First look at the three numbered circles. These are disturbances in all three jet streams. All these disturbances are going to try to consolidate in into a big through by the time we get to Wednesday. Wheather or not they actually all phase remains to be seen but a phase between #2 and #3 looks more probable at this point. The bigger point here is that big black circle north of the lakes. I basically circled an area that is between two polar waves. This is mimicking a negative NAO by causing a nice confluence zone which causes high pressure to hold firm in the eastern third of the country ahead of this storm.This was pointed out by meteorologist @antmasiello on twitter. 

You can see that high pressure here..

This forces the storm to develop south of the high pressure..

Ok so we have a southern trend now! That is the opposite of the northern trend all winter that is the good news! The bad news? Well, we can end up getting no storm at all if this gets too far suppressed to the south. The model runs last night started to suggest this thing get too suppressed but we still need to wait for trends.

I still see the best potential so far this year for accumulating snow in the NYC and Phili metro areas from this if it pans out. Since this storm potential has been my pet project since my post on Monday I will really stay on top of this. Hopefully this suppression trend does not continue- we will see. It always is a fine line between a warm storm, a snowstorm and no storm at all.

More later. 

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Thursday Night Video Discussion

In the video I go over the weekend storm as well as the storm potential for mid-week. The mid-week situation has the potential to effect areas further south than the weekend system and there are some interesting trends developing. Enjoy!

I Think I Might Cut a Video Later Tonight

The middle of next week interests me, might have a video up around 10.

Thursday Morning Weather Discussion

Good morning. Let's take an updated look at the storm system that will effect parts of the Northeast this weekend. Model guidance has been fairly consistent with this and I am confident this is an idea of what to expect..

Significant accumulations of 12+ are possible in the dark blue zone especially  closer to the Boston Area. In the outer edge of blue zone it would be less than 12+. The light blue zone is the chance at a few inches. 

There still can be some changes but the models should really have this locked up by tomorrow. I do not expect significant snow to extend into NJ or eastern PA. 

Bitterly cold air still arrives this weekend as well. Check out projected lows on Monday morning..

Yes its due to the polar vortex over our area. Also that big ridge over Alaska is key. 

Still watching for a storm middle of next week..

Based on the pattern which includes a lack of blocking this can end up being an interior heavy snow threat and rain along the coast. We will have to wait and see how this pans out.

The north Atlantic oscillation (NAO) has not behaved this year at all and has stayed in its positive phase most of the winter. This is a reason balt/wash and phili and even parts of NJ have missed out on big storms. I see no evidence that will change over the next 10 days.

Thanks for clicking in. 

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Nothing to Add This Morning: Thoughts the Same

Maybe some light snow Thursday, bigger storm Sunday but I think its only light to moderate snow for NY Metro area with heavier snow to northwest of that area (Mass,RI, Maine).

I still am keeping an eye on system for middle of next week as well.

Updates to come as more data come in.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion

I went into great detail yesterday on the remarkable weather pattern in place. This pattern will include record breaking cold this weekend and multiple storm threats. I am getting a better handle on what threats I believe will impact the region more than others.

To start off, threat 1 on Thursday will not effect our area with any significant snow. The only potential region that gets accumulating snow should be eastern Mass and the cape as a clipper dives down from Canada but develops too far off shore..

Moving on we have yet another large disturbance diving down just in time for the end of the weekend..

This is a massively cold air mass and at this time it appears this has at least a better chance of developing into a storm that is closer to the coast compared to the first..

Since the air is so cold even a few tenths of an inch of liquid would cause several inches of wind blown powder to fall Saturday night and Sunday. However, I am not fully sold on this threat either. There is not much blocking in place ahead of this disturbance which means we need this thing to really come in steep and close off fast over the mid Atlantic. At this time that is not going to occur. Again the only place that might have a chance at decent snow would be yup you guessed it eastern Mass. So bottom line I am not overly excited here but acknowledge things can still change. 

The third storm threat I think is still the most compelling and although it is over a week off I like the pattern ahead of it. The timing of this threat is still not certain as it all depends on when that sub tropical jet wants to break into the southern USA but the point is best simplified in the image below..

You can see a low developing near the gulf and cold air ahead of it over the northeast. If the upper air pattern ends up being optimal this can be a set up for a significant storm as you have warm moist air overrunning stubborn cold air that is locked in place. The jury is still out on this but I want to point out the potential for sometime next week. 

We will evaluate these threats more as time goes on. 

Monday, February 9, 2015

Monday Morning: Back Home in the Saddle, So Much to Talk About

Good morning. A snowstorm continues to be underway in New England where the snow is really starting to pile up. Expect several more inches of accumulation before it is all said and done later today up in Boston and especially along that I-90 corridor. It is remarkable to see how much snow has fallen up there in the last two weeks. When this pattern is all said and done records are bound to be broken not just on snowfall but potentially with cold as well. 

As for further south, especially in Northern NJ and NYC right now temps are below freezing with light precipitation. the 3-6 inch snow band I had (3 around I-78, 6 in extreme North NJ) will not verify. The cold air comes in as expected, but there is not enough moisture to make those accumulations fall based on latest model guidance. At this time an inch or two is possible before it is all said and done. You can see the void in precip on the model as we head into later today when I thought snow would break out..

I really thought some of this would fill in to produce some accumulating snow but you can see it is just snow showers at that time. Regardless, the forecast on the bulls eye of this time is not changed and those higher accumulations will fall up there.

We now turn the pattern for the next 10 days. I think the biggest theme here is going to be the extreme cold that breaks out later this week. I know its hard to believe but highs may only reach the single digits as we head into the weekend. For example, although this is prob overdone look what the GFS model has for temps on Sunday at 1pm..

Even if the model is off by 10 degrees look how could it still would be!

The GFS ensemble for the 5-10 day period look like this.

That purple color is up to 18 degrees below normal in C! 

Here is the pattern that is producing this extreme cold below. You can see the massive ridge out west is allowing the cold air to literally pour in from the poll. Also notice the vortex sitting just to the north of our area..

Bottom line expect the coldest air of the season from Friday through early next week. Low temps will be in the negative for many areas.

So how about snow threats? Is it going to be more of the same or will areas further to the south finally get a decent storm? Well initally it looks like more of the same. The Boston area has two threats of more snow in the next 7 days as clippers dive towards the region and try to redevelop off the coast..

On Thursday clipper number 1 dives down and potentially explosively redevelops right along the cape..

We then again on Sunday see a similar scenario unfold again!!

If this verified it would be historic and an absolute historic stretch of winter for up there. Looking at the overall pattern during the period of these two storm threats there is some support given:

  • The highly amplified western ridge
  • minor blocking developing over Greenland
  • Pieces of energy splitting off of the polar vortex

It is something that I am going to absolutely keep an eye on for the next 10 days. In general, a reasonable person would say the Boston area is not going to get two additional major back to back snow storms and I would agree. However, I think we need to acknowledge that one decent snowfall is def possible over next 7 days. 

Ok guys further south, this next part is now dedicated to you. There is some hope in the weather pattern as we get into next week..

This is a model projection for Tuesday into Wednesday of next week..

Ok so before everyone says your nuts "Willy" its over 7 days away you idiot. Lets take a look at the pattern because there is something very interesting going on during this period..

There is evidence and decent model agreement that the sub-tropical jet steam is going to come alive next week. This means that a lot of moisture rich air is going to flood into the nation. Normally this could cause a massive warm surge however, we have a big split flow in the jet stream. this means that we have a dome of arctic air locked into our region with warm moist air running into the cold dome. This is a classic set up for an overrunning snow event for the mid atlantic and part of northeast. I highlighted a lot of these features above. Notice how out west we still have that ridge that is causing cold air to funnel into the east downstream. The sub tropical moisture is undercutting that ridge. Also notice how I highlighted the dome of cold air over the east. The big vortex over southeastern Canada is also a key factor that needs to evolve as it would help anchor in the cold air.

Bottom line guys if everything comes together just right this is a very exciting and encouraging set up for snow lovers in areas a little further south of New England who got jipped so far this year.  I will keep you posted on how this evolves.

Gunna be a busy week on the blog! Thanks for checking in.