Wednesday Morning: Focusing on Two Periods Next Week

Good morning. I am trying to determine how and if it will snow next week. Today I want to give you a more focused look on the two periods I am looking at.

Period 1: Monday night into Tuesday

Light snow possible for snow areas

In this situation as seen below we have a disturbance of wave in the southern stream try to attack the cold high to the north. This results in an overrunning type of precipitation event where a few inches are possible for many areas of NJ into southern NE. This is a event that I am gaining confidence on. We will keep an eye on it over the next few days

Moving on to later in the period I am focusing on the Thursday and Friday time frame for a potential bigger storm. The exact details are extremely unclear so it is impossible to say rain vs snow vs mixed precip but it has potential to pack a punch for the area. 

I am going to use ensemble guidance because it is way too far off to use a operational model. I pointed out below the ingredients that could cause a storm but again things are still very unclear. We need to wait.

In terms of the surface models are showing a coastal low develop including the European ensemble as seen below.

Something that is worth keeping an eye on. Let's focus on Monday and Tuesday first. I like the pattern and I think it will eventually deliver. The brutal cold continues this week, especially tomorrow morning Bundle up!