Thursday, January 15, 2015

Thursday Morning: Are We Awaking the Sleeping Giant (Winter)

Good morning. For the first time this winter season I can say I really am getting excited over the weather pattern that is developing. We started discussing a few days back how important a negative NAO was to getting the shot for snowstorms along the east coast. Models were starting to hint back then that the NAO could occur but it was too early to make a call. As I sit here and look at the models today I can confidently say a developing NAO is now likely! 

Let me stop there. This does not mean a storm is guaranteed! All it means is that unlike before the soil, if I may use a farming analogy here, is much richer meaning we have a more favorable environment for storms to form. This pattern is so essential because it locks in the cold air and blocks storms from cutting into the lakes or out to sea in many cases. 

Here is the European ensembles prediction of the upper air pressure pattern for days 5-9.

You can see that -NAO signature developing over Greenland. We want to now watch to make sure the reds set up more to the west of Greenland. The further west the better for winter storms. If we get the reds to set up too far east of Greenland then storms can cut inland. Regardless, this projection is the most encouragement I have seen all year and matches all the research I did when I made my winter forecast. Too bad its halfway through January already so we have a lot of lost ground to make up.

So now that we have a favorable and may I add colder weather pattern setting up for the rest of the month we can start to take storms threats more seriously.

It looks likely at this point that a storm will effect interior new england on Sunday night into Monday. I mentioned this yesterday. Here are latest model projections..

GFS

Storm develops late near the gulf of Maine and would give central and eastern Maine, and VT/NH mountain snows. 

The European is much more agressive and actually is warmer due to it phaseing the storm earlier..

Very strong storm, but a warmer solution than the GFS. In this case extreme interior New England gets the snows. 

I think right now you blend the two models and what your left with is a coastal storm that gives interior mountain snows. This is not a coastal snow threat at this time due to cold air leaving ahead of the storm. You can see below how warm air advances in on Saturday night due to a low pressure system north of Michigan dragging in a warm front..The non grey colors show warm air advancing.


Too bad that one factor is throwing this whole situation off. Regardless, I will be in Jay Peak VT skiing this weekend and im hoping I get lucky with this situation. This can change but right now I do not see a big snow threat for areas near the coast.

Moving on, looking at the very long range we have another threat to monitor for next weekend..


I am only showing this because I like the pattern. Obviously it is very far off and in no way is this a prediction. Just something to watch for now. 



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