Sunday, January 11, 2015

Sunday Night: The Forecast for Tomorrow

We got some unsettled weather coming in tonight as moisture moves in from the southwest and attacks the cold air.

For all areas from Central Jersey and PA north the precip can start as some snow very early in the morning but quickly change to freezing rain. I expect this freezing rain to continue into the mid morning where eventually surface temps go above freezing from south to north. In areas at high elevations of north NJ and southern New England expect the most snow and ice accumulations. Snow amounts of up to 2" possible, but generally a dusting in most spots in northern counties. 

This is not a major ice storm, just a nuisance. The morning commute could be tricky  so be careful out there. Expect the rain to taper off by later tomorrow afternoon.

Here is the GFS model valid 7am tomorrow morning. You can see the ice projections in pink. 

By 1 pm warm air is taking over for mostly all areas..

Here are projected snowfall amounts. The higher elevations in NY State and VT and NH can see 2-6 inches. 

As far as the late week storm is concerned, I am putting less that a 20% chance at it occuring. The jet streams are simply not looking like they will phase. We need to wait for a negative NAO or high pressure area over Greenland to develop before we can see any snow. I will touch on this more tomorrow morning. 

I will still watch the late week situation but at this time its nothing to think about.  More tomorrow.

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