This is a table I found that shows the biggest snows for some mid-Atlantic cities and the state of the NAO. Notice how most are negative. Note that this table only goes to 2010.
So we now wait and see. In terms of my winter forecast I think the temperature part might do ok but mother nature better get to work quick on the snowfall predictions or that part will be a big bust.
Models are hinting it could go negative but as I said yesterday we need to just wait and see. Here is the GFS ensemble box and whisker plot on the negative NAO representing the spread in outcomes for each day. The black line is just the control run so you can disregard that.
The first number on the x axis represents the day of the month. Disregard the second number.