Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Nothing to add Today, The Importance of the NAO

Seasonable conditions through the rest of the week. We then see a warm up but its only going to last through half of next week. I am at a point where I am just going to wait and see how things play out. It has been a very disappointing winter for a snow lover like me . I can not emphasize enough how getting that negative NAO is so critical if anyone who reads this blog wants a big snowstorm. The diagram I put up yesterday is a simple explanation why. Think of it as slowing traffic down on a highway. The negative NAO buckles the jet stream so disturbances approaching from the north in Canada and the south from the sub tropics have a better chance at coming together. It also locks in the cold air for snow to fall if storms do form.

This is a table I found that shows the biggest snows for some mid-Atlantic cities and the state of the NAO. Notice how most are negative. Note that this table only goes to 2010.

So we now wait and see. In terms of my winter forecast I think the temperature part might do ok but mother nature better get to work quick on the snowfall predictions or that part will be a big bust.

Models are hinting it could go negative but as I said yesterday we need to just wait and see. Here is the GFS ensemble box and whisker plot on the negative NAO representing the spread in outcomes for each day. The black line is just the control run so you can disregard that. 

The first number on the x axis represents the day of the month. Disregard the second number. 

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