Monday, January 26, 2015

Here is what is going on...

Latest model guidance is conflicting. However there are signs of errors in it. Regardless, in the interest of providing you guys with the most accurate information I need to wait for observations. My goal is to be up front with everyone and let you know if I think this will be a busted forecast for some areas. That is a risk but it is impossible to know for sure until I evaluate these snow bands moving in off the ocean now..



Bottom line these bands will spread into NJ or just skim the coast and head northeastward. The latest model guidance is not buying the fact they will move all the way into NJ. However the storm is still following what the afternoon European model projected. The European had these bands coming on shore. The whole fate of this storm lies in the next two hours.

If this ends up being a major bust, I will be the first to admit it and take it on the chin. There is no room for pretending this was part of my forecast on this blog. 


Stay tuned, I will make the final call as soon as I can. Thanks for being patient. 

10 comments:

  1. What kind of totals are we looking at for totowa nj

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  2. where's the snow?

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  3. Weather.com is now projecting 5-8 inches for NNJ (Morris/Essex). It that turns out to be true all you "Historic Blizzard" weather wonks should be ashamed of yourselves.

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  4. NBC just downgraded the snow band to 6-12 for Morris County. Total bust. Historic fail.

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  5. How was dinner? Looks like 6"-8". Amazing how we could go from 2' to 6".

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  6. We will know the fate of this soon, if its a bust everyone has the right to be angered and feel free to criticize. For Totowa, keep an eye on the radar if that gets in your area then you will get your snow.

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  7. It's a bust, but it's not like we didn't see this coming. Will's video from last night showed the low pressure forming way east, but the wishcasters insisted it would be more west despite the evidence. oh well, i guess it's easy to mock the weather guys on TV for being wrong when your anonymous on Twitter

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  8. It's not mocking...the danger in forecasters being SO wrong...any of them...is that next time on one listens and people get hurt if and when these guys stumble onto an accurate forecast.

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  9. looks like the storm is coming together now and pushing westward with some strong snow bands

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