Latest model guidance is conflicting. However there are signs of errors in it. Regardless, in the interest of providing you guys with the most accurate information I need to wait for observations. My goal is to be up front with everyone and let you know if I think this will be a busted forecast for some areas. That is a risk but it is impossible to know for sure until I evaluate these snow bands moving in off the ocean now..
Bottom line these bands will spread into NJ or just skim the coast and head northeastward. The latest model guidance is not buying the fact they will move all the way into NJ. However the storm is still following what the afternoon European model projected. The European had these bands coming on shore. The whole fate of this storm lies in the next two hours.
If this ends up being a major bust, I will be the first to admit it and take it on the chin. There is no room for pretending this was part of my forecast on this blog.
Stay tuned, I will make the final call as soon as I can. Thanks for being patient.