Monday, January 19, 2015

Monday Morning: Closer Look at Wednesday's Clipper and Early Next Week nd

Few quick points this morning.

For one we need to see how this clipper evolves. Right now I am leaning towards light snow Wednesday into Wednesday night with maybe small accumulations The models have been pretty inconsistent with this clipper and based on the pattern ahead of the storm I do not think things will be ripe enough for a big redevelopment.

Here is the GFS from last night..

And the NAM model hot off the press..

Both models are not impressed with this clipper and I am going to agree with them. The flow in the jet stream is too progressive or in other words flat. This is a different look that what was projected a few days back. So snow showers might be the word here. I do not see it worth making a map.

Moving on we have a large trough in the jet stream expected to develop by the end of this weekend..

This is very interesting for early next week because of the potential size of this trough and the energy that can get bundled into it. When I see the amplitude of a trough like this you need to be on the lookout for a big storm. Notice there is not high pressure over Greenland in this scenario. That means that if a big storm forms it can just as much cut into the lakes as it can move up the coast. It is all going to come down to timing of when the northern branch does or will phase with the southern branch to dictate the track of this potential storm. I am only bringing this up because I am impressed with the consistency of the models in showing this outcome.It is something to watch over the next few days.

More tonight, I have a day off so more time to post. 

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