Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Factors to Monitor Heading into Winter

Video below discusses my first thoughts on the Winter of 2015. My official detailed forecast with graphics will come out in late Oct or Early November, but for now I discuss the factors I am monitoring and their implications. It will be interesting to see how things look once we get to mid fall. 




Friday, August 22, 2014

Im Back: Friday Morning Update

Finally back and have some time to make a quick post. Overall I will be putting most of my time into my post Monday Night when I will release my first thoughts on Winter. This will not be an official winter forecast since it really is too early to make that call. Instead, I will show how all the factors are currently lining up and give some prespective on the type of winters they have resulted in historically. It will be interesting to see how these variables change based on history because after all the weather patterns never work in a linear fashion. Def something to log in and take a look at Monday night.

Moving on to this weekend, some unsettled weather enters our area today into Sat morning..



Expect occasional showers and this unsettled weather will end by later in the day on Sat. Sunday looks beautiful right now as high pressure builds in the area..


In fact as we enter Monday and Tuesday temps might warm up a little as a ridge builds..


You will begin to hear alot of hype about a developing hurricane in the tropical Atlantic. This is something I have been monitoring for a few days now and honestly its too early to say where this storm will go. Tracks by the models range from Florida, the east coast, and out to sea. Right now I am leaning towards a curve out to sea track. 

Here are the model spreads...


Stay tuned this weekend, if there are any major developments I will make a post. Otherwise, look forward to that post on Winter coming Monday night.


Friday, August 8, 2014

On Vacation for A Week

Away for the next 10 days, but we will see more of the same with the weather. Cooler than normal conditions and showers from time to time over this time period. The frequency of posting will really start to increase as we approach the fall. That's when the jet stream starts to strengthen and we have more active weather to talk about including the heart of hurricane season.  

I will also towards the end of this month discuss the factors that will determine how this winter will pan out. I will release the official winter forecast in the fall but I will discuss some preliminary thoughts when I return. Stay tuned..