Thursday, December 11, 2014

Thursday Morning: Will Late December Bring Snow to Mid Atlantic?

The jury is still out on that, but I am expecting a colder pattern to set in just before Christmas. The models are trying to hint at this..

Here is the projected upper air setup for Xmas morning..


The key is the projected ridge to develop out west along with the blocking high pressure or ridge projected to develop near Greenland. Those two components are key for cold and storminess along the east coast. Right now we did not have the blocking over Greenland which is why the storm was warmer this week for many areas near the coast. Based on the stratospheric influences I discussed earlier in the month I would be surprised if a pattern similar to this did not take hold before January 1. 

In terms of storms, I have my eyes on a few periods up to Xmas but I am not ready to jump on anything yet. We should have 1 or 2 shots over the next 3 weeks. Hopefully this yields a white Christmas. 

In terms of the last storm, many areas in NY, and VT did quite well yesterday. Killington ski resort reported 2 feet for the storm. It was the NJ and eastern PA areas that got ripped off even in terms of rainfall amounts. 

More in the days to come as I study this pattern. I do not want to jump on any storm threats unless I think we got a realistic chance. Once and if we build the Greenland block its game on!

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