Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Merry Christmas Eve Everyone: Will We Have a White New Year?

Although some big question marks remain, we def have a shot at some snow early next week. I spoke in my video yesterday about the pressing cold air due to a big ridge of high pressure over Alaska. I am gaining even more confidence that this cold air will indeed press. All the models are showing that now. However, the differences remain in how the energy on the field is handled.

Let's start with our most aggressive solution the new run of the Canadian model...

Spins up an impressive storm for many areas. An initial wave of light snow comes in Monday and the time stamp in the image above is for Tuesday morning as a coastal low develops on the boundary between the cold air pressing and warm air to the south. This results in several inches of snow for many areas.

Now lets turn to the GFS which is similar to the European with a more suppressed solution..

The image above is not for the same time as the Canadian output. In fact this image is valid for Wednesday afternoon. The GFS has nothing for Tuesday morning unlike the Canadian . The reason is the differences between how the two models are handing the upper air energy..

Lets take a look at the black circle on the Canadian model image below..

Notice how the short wave(s) is over the central us.

Now to the GFS at the same time..

Notice how it hangs that energy back more. This is why the GFS shows no storm on Tuesday and holds it off till Wednesday. Right now you need to go with a blend between the two especially considering the European is closer to the GFS. 

Whats the conclusion at this time? I think we can be confident cold air presses late this weekend into next week which means some sort of low pressure system should develop near the east coast where a ridge of high pressure will try to fight the cold air. The exact timing is to be determined as there remains model spread with the handling of the energy. This means all I can say at this time is look for a chance of snow sometime between Monday night and Thursday of next week. Who gets rain and who gets snow will depend on how much south the cold air presses. I think central and north NJ into New England have a shot at frozen precip at this time. 

I know all the snow lovers out there have been discouraged by the lack of snow this December. It surprised a lot of forecasters. Going into January this should change and all the data I look like indicates a sharp turn to winter. Let's see if next week is the appetizer to the rest of the season. Snow or no snow we should turn to colder temperatures heading into January. I think the next three weeks are critical in determining the fate of Winter 2015!

Merry Christmas!

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