The Preliminary Forecast:
A low pressure center will form off the Carolina Capes Monday night and intensify as it heads north, northeastward up the mid-Atlantic coast. As the storm center reaches just south of long island Tuesday night, it will close off and stall out over the forecast area. This is due to the phasing of the northern and southern jet streams- A result of a highly amplified ridge out west and blocking high pressure that will start to slide off eastern Canada.
This storm will be a major event for all areas and feature a long periods of intense rain, high wind, and very heavy snowfall in the interior. The biggest effect will be on Tuesday for the tri-state area. For most places near the big cities, you will experience heavy rain and wind. As you travel to the northwest outside of interstate 95 the rain should change to some snow Tuesday night. The snow could be heavy at times and cause moderate accumulations. For interior New York state, VT,NH and Maine this is a major snowstorm. There can be blizzard conditions at times. 1-3 feet of accumulations are possible due to the length of this storm. For ski areas, this is a dream come true. By Thursday the storm should dissipate for all areas including Maine.
This is a preliminary forecast. That means things can still change due to the complexity of this storm. A slight shift in its track will largely influence who gets rain and who gets snow. Considering this complexity along with the storm being over 60 hours away, there will continue to be some model uncertainty.
Stay tuned. I will be updating frequently.