Monday, December 8, 2014

Final Forecast: Impressive storm, but amounts need to come down.

Good morning. Here is the final forecast for this week's storm. This is a extremely complicated set-up with all sorts of forecasting challenges. The main issue here is the lack of cold air for many areas at lower elevations. In general, the high range of all my totals below are in mountain areas so keep that in mind when looking for the amount of snow in your backyard. You want to be at a high elevation. 

I cut down my amounts due to the projection of warm mid level air making its way all the way up to VT ,NH. and NY state This will cause the snow up there to change to sleet later in the day on Tuesday for some spots. Above 2000 ft in the dark blue region, I am expecting around 12" of snow to fall there with local areas possibly 18-24". All other regions this is mostly rain! Again this is mostly rain. The snow projections, especially for the light blue shade are for potential back end snow on Wednesday morning. 

The Forecast:

A low pressure center will develop along the VA capes and move north, northeastward into the forecast area. This low pressure center will then stall out causing a prolonged storm event. For most areas, this is a wind driven rain storm all day on Tuesday. For areas in ski country this is mostly a snow storm with sleet mixing in at times on Tuesday. As the low pressure center cuts off Tuesday night, I expect cold air to work its way into areas in central and eastern PA,northwest NJ and southern NY causing back end snows Wednesday morning. This can cause a few inches of accumulations and even a surprise or two with higher amounts. That is the most uncertain part of this forecast, nailing down who gets lucky with the back end.

The storm will linger on Wednesday but slowly dry up. I expect all areas to be in the clear by Thursday.


3 comments:

  1. Do you put any stock in the Canadian model? That thing shows a heck of a storm, with a big deformation zone tomorrow night with moderate non stop snow for the remainder

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    1. Do you live in upstate NY? Canadian is not a great model but it has done decent w this storm so far. The deformation band is very beleiveable I am going to take a closer look tonight.. This storm will be full of surprises many of which will come later tomorrow night into Wednesday

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  2. Yeah, I live just south of Utica. Looks like we are going to have a little mixing tomorrow before transitioning to all snow. Definitely like 12"+ when this is all said and done, especially if we get that deformation zone that the Canadian is showing

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