For those of you who watched the video last night I explained why the weekend storm was no longer in play on the models and what had to change for the storm to re-appear. Nothing has changed so the chances of a big weekend storm are slim to none at this point. However, we have the pattern in place to produce the big storms and that is not ready to change. As a result we have another shot middle of next week for a storm to develop. Could this fizzle out just like the weekend system, absolutely. Like i said in the video its very very hard to get the "big one" but the players will be back on the field next week. Here is the mid week set up, I highlighted the factors missing in the weekend storm that are present (AS OF NOW) on the new European model run. The two circled components would combine under this setup due to that western ridge. Click to make bigger.
Our weekend system looked like the above image a few days ago on the models now it looks like this..
Very flat setup as I described last night, which does not allow the northern and southern branch to phase. Notice now there is no ridge on the west coast like in the top image so the pattern does not become amplified or in other words slow the flow down for the weekend.
So patience is key, its hard to get a very big storm. Lets see how this trends next few days. I cannot make any bold predictions until we are at least 5 days out. Otherwise i'm just guessing and so is anyone else out there.
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