Good morning. After going long on Monday for a storm this weekend, it appears at this time my ideas will not come to fruition. The pattern did not slow down as I was anticipating and will be too progressive (fast) thus the storm will not be able to mature along the east coast. You win some you loose some, but I like to take a chance once in a while in order to make this page more enjoyable. I saw this pattern change coming two weeks ago (that part I got right) and knew the pattern could produce a storm as It will, just 100 miles out to sea (I know that doesn't count). As long as I am not wrong more than I am right I can deal with that. I want to try to give you guys a longer term perspective instead of being overly conservative. In any event here is the problem with the weekend system..
The trough does not have a negative tilt, so the storm does not wind up along the coast and also I did not anticipate another disturbance behind this system as seen by the circled yellow area. This small disturbance will keep the flow progressive and kick the storm more to the east. The end result is development off shore. We still are a few days away so there always is a shot things can change, but I have no data to support my original idea at this time so I need to state the facts.
In any event my ideas behind the weather pattern are very firm and we will lock into a cold stormy pattern, we just need to be patient and wait for this pattern to mature and we will get our fair share of snow. The biggest headline in the next few weeks will be the cold along the east coast. Don't be surprised if you hear the term "Polar Vortex" again as it is possible it will take another trip to our area. The only difference this time is it would come in the dead of winter which means conditions could actually be colder than last time, but now we are getting ahead of ourselves. The important thing to know is the potential is there for very cold weather and the potential is increasing everyday. Snow will come.
Keep checking in as I will continue to keep an eye on things.