Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Wednesday Discussion: Storm Totals and A Look at Next Week

Good morning. Yesterday turned out to be a nice snowfall in most parts of the state. My finalized snow map was almost spot on but I am not going to give myself too much credit because I changed it yesterday morning. Although we saw some impressive amounts in spots up to 13 and 15 inches localized, my original map prob would have been better in terms of averages. In any event here was the final result.

My Map:


Storm History (click to make bigger): 


Here are the charted snowfall reports NJ Snowfall Reports. So overall I first mentioned potential on this storm for January 5th. However I did wavier a little  over the last week only saying that this could shift to be a moderate snowfall and I had to upgrade towards the end since it was heavier than I expected. I'll give myself a B- on this one. 

In any event that big pattern change is now here. We have had our first large spread accumulating snow event so whats next?

For one this cold air sticks around for a while, so the snow stays on the ground. Secondly and more importantly I am keeping my eye on middle of next week for a potential coastal storm. A big part of the reason is the southern jet stream is going to become active again. With the cold air already in place, all need need is a northern jet stream impulse to phase with the moisture for the southern stream and we get a classic storm. 

Here are the ingredients below: 


Moisture developing in the Gulf along with energy diving down from Canada could combine. 

More on this as the days go on. Expect some episodes of light snow as the week rolls on. 


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