Thursday, January 16, 2014

Thursday Night Update: Action on the Horizon

Here was my original outlook from Sunday January 5th.

 Polar Vortex crashes into our area Tuesday causing the lowest temps in 20 years over the country.
2. We have a shot at light snow Friday
3. This is followed by a mild weather pattern for about 7 days.
4. After January 15th all indications (explained in the video) are for winter to make a sharp return
5. I am looking at the threat for a storm between the 16-19th and then again on the 22-24th
6. This progressive pattern should continue into Feb. 

It is now January 16th and here is what has happened:

1. We got light snow that Friday (half inch in some spots)
2. The weather pattern got mild up until today.
3. It is now January 16th and Winter WILL make a sharp return
4. There will be no big storm between the 16-19th, the storm will develop but off shore just giving us snow showers this weekend. 
5. There is potential for a big storm on the 22nd, but the details need to be worked out
6. Feb should be very special this year in terms of cold and storminess

So now that I graded myself lets get to Wednesday the 22nd. Here is the upper air set up

Upper air pattern supports storm to develop based on:

1. high pressure over Greenland
2. Ridge out over west coast
3. Upper level pressure area north of Nova Scotia (a critical part of big storms)

What will determine if this is another storm out to sea or a significant winter storm will be the timing of the northern and southern branch of the jet streams phasing (as usual). I have been out in NYC all week so my access is limited but I will take a very close dive at this tomorrow morning in a video. Also a Superbowl prediction is on the horizon as well.

We have a hell of a period of weather over the next 30 days. Stay tuned, this could be special.  More tomorrow. 

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