Sunday, January 26, 2014

Sunday Night Video: Not So Fast My Friend

Some people think they know it all in the weather community, just like some experts think they know it all in the financial industry. I certainly do not know it all, but I like to follow trends. Both short term and season long trends. The seasonal trend has been for the models to not handle northern short waves properly this has resulted in many last second changes to many weather forecasts for snow. Now taking a look at next weeks storm, the consensus all weekend has been this is a southern slider. That means the storm is going to give the southern states snow and leave us dry. I think 99% of the weather community has bought into that idea. However all these forecasts are based on assumptions. We all know assumptions change and based on how those assumptions change is going to dictate what happens with the projected weather. So lets focus on the inevitable errors a model will make then just make our forecasts based on current assumptions. Now I might be nuts here to still be holding onto the idea of a storm coming up the coast this week (the current upper air assumptions do not support me), but what the heck might as well have a little fun and see how wrong or right I end up being. Details on latest trends in video below. 



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