Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Who's Dreaming of a Green Christmas?

Get ready to fire up the grills this weekend, here comes a blow torch.  If you like the snow I would spend some quality time outside today because by Xmas morning its gone. Not only will temps reach into the 60's this weekend but we have a nice rain storm to put the nail in the coffin on its heals. Oh it will cool down again but not until the rain throws the hay maker on Sunday to ensure all the snow is gone. 

Check out the temperature departures from average this weekend

If you cant see that clearly that's anywhere from 15-30 degrees above normal for Sunday. Now here's the final blow...

Once this rain clears the area sometime Monday it will get very cold again but below is the damage to the snow pack...

BEFORE (Today):

AFTER (Xmas):

I think I made my point. So is there any good news before we bring in 2014? Maybe. I am monitoring a potential favorable setup for a storm system to effect our region New Years Eve time frame. Here's what I am looking at..

You see a storm over eastern Asia by tomorrow..

A general rule is that storms that form over eastern Asia (shown by the blue and green over Japan) generally will resemble conditions along the eastern part of the USA 6-10 days later. The image above valid Friday the 20th, brings us to the 26-30th time frame for a possible storm. Lets see what the models project for that time..

Generally although the forecast is diluted because it is the average of many different trials, it looks like its favorable with a trough over the east and ridge to the west. Only time will tell. The GFS in its fantasy range (anything outside of 7 days) likes the idea valid New Years Day..

Time will tell. As always I will keep updating on this pattern. 

Thanks for checking in. 

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