Monday, December 9, 2013

Monday Morning: Summary of Yesterday and Looking Ahead to Tomorrow/Next Weekend

Good morning. I want to start off by taking a look at the final snow totals from yesterday

Large spread 1-2 inches over most areas, but where this storm threw everyone off was that narrow band along northern Delaware and south central NJ that produced 6-12 inches. What ended up happening was the cold air to the north was stronger than modeling had expected and it caused a strong area of accelerating upward air in the region where the cold air met the warm air.

Here was my map

As you can see I was dead wrong over the areas that where in that narrow band but the rest of the areas received the snow I expected (1-2 inch range).

Looking ahead into tomorrow we have another wave of low pressure that will cause snow to effect our region. This is at 1pm tomorrow.

Snow will break out late morning and last into the evening. I expect accumulations of 2-4 inches over most areas with locally higher amounts. Rain will not be a concern as cold air will be in place and the low will track just to the north east off the coast. Here is what the modeling is printing out for snow totals.

Not a complicated set up pretty straight forward. Roads will get slick tho.

Now in the longer range we have to monitor a potential situation for the end of the weekend. This would be a much larger storm threat than what we recently experienced

Below are the ingredients for this system which need to come together just right. Both jet streams need to phase and there has to be enough ridging to the west. If this all does come together we would have a big Nor'easter on our hands. 

More on this potential in the days to follow. Right now its all speculation as we are 6 days away.

I will put detailed snow map out tonight for tomorrow's event when I have more time.  

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