Saturday, December 28, 2013

Let the Media Hype Begin: Here We Go, My Ideas are Now Showing on European Model

For those of you who have been following daily you know I've been talking about a major pattern change since before Xmas. I also mentioned I thought around the New Year the pattern would be ripe for a major storm. Models have been in absolute mayhem over the past few days not able to agree on everything. The model ensembles however, which basically test the model for errors have been hinting at a potential major storm for the end of next week. I outlined yesterday what had to come together in order to produce a major east coast storm. It all comes down to the phasing of the jet streams  and placement of high pressure. When we are 6 days out from an event, the models do not have to change much for the surface solution to change drastically. There is now evidence that is starting to occur based on the latest model guidance. 

The latest European model now phases the jet streams over the east coast, producing a significant storm. We are still 6 days away so a lot will change but I am confident we will see a major storm. Here was the European yesterday...



















Latest run:



















Blows up a major storm just off of cape cod and gives tri state area a lot of snow to. So why such a drastic change? It basically all has to do with the speed and timing of the upper air energy in the jet stream I discussed in yesterdays post. Change those variables just a hair and you have a major shift at the surface like you see above. That is why to predict weather with more accuracy you need to understand what can change not just what the model prints out at the surface. Any 5th grader can read a surface model printout. All week I saw the potential just based on what was going on in the overall pattern, which was first discussed back on the 23rd in my post. 

So is this storm a guarantee, of course not, a lot will change in next 6 days along with the media circus that will inevitably start hyping up this storm. But I will say I think we have a good shot at this one. We will have very cold air in place, an active sub tropical jet stream and upper air high pressure in an optimal spot that historically has given us great storms.  Other model guidance including the GFS and Canadian are also starting to trend towards my ideas as well. 

Snowfall amounts could be large with this but I will not mention amounts yet or show some of the impressive amounts the European is printing out just because it is too early and premature to do so.I will focus on that if this trend continues over the next 36 hours.

Frequent updates now will now be posted as more data comes in. Be sure to check in and encourage others to visit www.weatherwilly.blogspot.com to keep them ahead of the necessary or unnecessary media hype. 

More late tonight. 

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