Thursday, December 12, 2013

Thursday Morning: My Snowfall Map for Snow Event

Good morning,  my confidence is high on a moderate snow event to effect parts of the area from Sat afternoon into early Sunday morning.  As I have been talking about a lot was banking on both storm systems phasing to produce a big storm.  However,  a phased solution would of likely produced the accumulating snows father North into mostly new England.  The solution I am going with is a middle ground.  The two disturbances will not phase but instead keep most of North Jersey cold enough to snow for the duration of the event.  To boot, there will still be a lot of Moisture available as the second non phased wave will still add to the initial precip totals from earlier Saturday afternoon.  So what does this all mean?  It means my thoughts on my map yesterday morning I am sticking with.  Here is that map with timing and I will write in my snow forecast below.

Dark blue area: 5 to 8 inches 

Light blue area: 2 to 5 inches the closer to the dark blue you get (morristown) 

Green Area: little accumulation 

NYC will see some accumulations out of this prob around 3.

Baltimore DC areas a few inches possible as well. 

Stay tuned for frequent updates.  If i have to update map it will not be until Friday. At that time I will have more detailed projected snow bands as some areas will be in the 1ft range. I like to hold a forecast if I can unlike the weather channel.

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