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The 2023 Winter Outlook

Friday, October 4, 2013

What a Day for Weather

Its a rare occurrence that in one day you will see a blizzard, tornado's and a tropical storm all effecting the country at the same time. Over the next 24 hours Wyoming and South Dakota will see 1-2 feet of snow, Iowa will see super cell thunderstorms that will produce tornado's, the Mississippi valley will see a strong line of thunderstorms, and the gulf states will be effected by tropical storm Karen. The map below sums everything up using the GFS model...


I marked all four features above time valid 8pm Friday night. On the back end of this massive low pressure system you see the heavy snow effecting Wyoming and SD, on the warm side of the storm to the east you see where the tornadoes will develop, just to the southeast you see the cold front producing a squall line of thunderstorms and in the gulf Karen is starting to intensify. 

The biggest threat will be the possible tornadoes in Iowa due to a wind sheer that will take place (winds moving in different directions cause thunderstorms to spin and produce tornadoes).

Take a look at the high level winds in the left pane and the lower level winds in the right pane and how the directions differ (tails indicate direction wind is coming from)..













This will produce tornadoes in Iowa. 

In terms of snowfall take a look at the latest projections, the  models have been very consistent with these high amounts..



That's 1-2 feet with locally 40 inches in some spots. 

Thanks for checking in.

@weatherwilly

By the way, in case you prefer to use the National Weather Service your out of luck..



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