Sunday, September 29, 2013

Taking a Look At October

Good evening, wanted to post on what to expect for the first two weeks of October in terms of temperatures. I expect we see seasonable to above average temps for the next two weeks bringing us into the mid to high 70's. Very nice weather for this time of year. This will be due to a jet stream ridge developing over our region as shown below.

Fridays upper air map shows this pattern with a deep trough (blue) over the central united states and a ridge (brown and yellow) over the east coast. The ridge allows warm southern air to come into our area while the tough allows cold northern area to sink down from Canada. By the end of the week I expect that trough in the central US to produce a decent storm for that part of the country and possibly some snow showers for the northern states in that region towards the end.

Our area will be quiet all week in terms of rainfall, so enjoy the nice week and the first half of Oct. I will be posting periodically. 

The storm I mentioned possibly effecting the cape on Monday will stay offshore. It was a very close call but the front approaching from the west will not capture the storm out to sea thus not pulling it inland. The models have had a hard time with this system all week. 

That's all for now. Follow me on twitter @weatherwilly 

Friday, September 27, 2013

Storm Looks to Effect Cape Cod and Some of Eastern NE On Monday

Latest model guidance still keeps storm off shore but has it come inland enough to effect the cape with sustained winds of around 35 mph and gusts possibly up to 50 mph. This storm will develop off in the Atlantic and turn back into the coast as it runs into high pressure to the north.  

Above image shows the wind gusts at 1 pm on Monday. You can see eastern Mass and the Cape have gusts from 25-40 knots. This is from the GFS model. The European model also has shifted to a similar solution. As I mentioned in prior posts I still do not see a threat to our forecast area (New Jersey/New York). 

Check in again Sunday evening and I will give a final update. In the meantime any changes I will tweet @weatherwilly.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Models Not Trending Inland...Out To Sea Likely

I never wanted to jump on this storm because only two true runs of the long term European model had it yesterday. Usually I like to see if a trend develops and as of now it looks like this storm will remain offshore as shown below..

If anything changes I will keep you updated, but as of now I only see eastern New England that may see some effects from this system.

Map on Potential Impact From Coastal Storm: More Detail Later Tonight

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Saturday Quick Post

The front will hold off till the evening hours..expect mostly cloudy conditions in the meantime with temps in the low to mid 70's. Here is the projected radar and precipitation shield for 7pm Tonight..

By late morning Sunday the rain will be gone and expect high pressure to move back into the area with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

2014 Winter Outlook: Expect Some Action on East Coast with Mild Conditions at Times

Below is my first forecast for the winter of 2014. The video will take a deep dive into the variables I am using for my forecast while the text summary below is more of a speed read. 

At first glance the Winter of 2013-2014 looks to be above average in terms of snowfall and slightly below average to normal for temps across the Northeast. I am basing my initial forecast on four major variables ranked in terms of highest impact on the winter season:

  1. Development of a weak El Nino (warm water off coast of western South America)
  2. A Warm Atlantic Ocean
  3. A negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (cold water along the northeast pacific coast, with warm water further out to sea)
  4. Not Very Active Solar Activity (measured by sun spot activity)
All four of these variables should lead to high latitude blocking across Greenland, and an active southern jet stream which in turn will create a storm healthy environment for the Northeast at times. I do not expect a brutally cold winter. Instead I think we will see wide fluctuations between below normal and above normal temperatures as the Jet Stream position will vary. The long term climate models also support my thoughts which I will show graphically. Starting off with the Climate Forecast System model, here is what it is projecting for temperatures this winter...

As you can see it is predicting above normal temps for the western US and seasonable to below normal for the East. This is indicating a ridge in the jet stream to the west and a trough to the east. This jet stream pattern as I mentioned is going to be largely influenced by what the water temperature profile will be off the South American Coast. Here is what current models are predicting for how warm the water will be in that region..

By the DJF (dec,jan,feb) time period most model guidance is predicting a weak El Nino as shown by the y axis variables over 0. Here is generally how a weak El Nino effects the jet stream

Combine this with the other variables I mentioned (warm Atlantic, low solar, negative PDO) here are all the years I have found in history that had many of those variables present and what the atmosphere looked like in those years..

Red indicates high pressure and a Ridge in the jet stream and blue indicates lower pressures/colder air/through in the jet stream. You can see that these winters had the tendency for low pressure to develop over the eastern part of the US, high pressure over Greenland (essential to big Northeast storms) and possible ridging in the western US. The lower pressure shown over the gulf of Alaska is not ideal, as it can result in a warm zonal flow at times, but I think taking all factors into account we will have periods of activity. With that being said here is my forecast for the jet stream this winter..

I am predicting we will see a active northern and southern branch, that will merge when we have ridging in the west (shown by dotted blue lines). At times I do believe we can see zonal flows (flat jet stream) which will cause some warm spells. Add everything together and here is my initial Winter Forecast:



When it is all said and done I think we will see two Major snowstorms this winter one occurring early in the season the other around mid to late Feb. In between, I expect a few light to moderate snow events as clipper systems will swing down from Canada. Do not be surprised tho if this winter comes in sprints meaning we have weeks of warmer than normal temps followed by very cold and snowy periods. 

Thanks for checking in, I will release the final winter forecast in November and update if necessary. The one factor that can bust this forecast is if the El Nino becomes too strong, but I don not see that occurring at this time. 

In the meantime follow me on twitter @weatherwilly