Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Tuesday Am: Brief Update on Tomorrow

Good morning, I wanted to make a quick update on the snow situation for tomorrow and my thoughts for the weekend system. Overall, I like where my snowfall map shows the core of the snow for tomorrow night and the timing. I might have to tweak the amounts down however to the 2-4 inch range from the 5-7. I am not seeing the liquid precipitation amounts I would want at this time, so I will take a closer look at this after this afternoons updates come in and see if I have to update map. Regardless, snow will fall tomorrow night and be over in time for them to hopefully clean things up for the commute on Thursday morning. This is nothing to get overly excited about in the shadow of last weekends system.

I am still keeping my eye on the weekend storm threat for the east coast. There is a lack of any model agreement. Right now the Canadian model is by far the bullish with developing a storm, and the other models are lagging behind the Canadian. If only the Canadian was a reliable model then there would be reason to get excited. However, if you want a big storm there is some glimmer of hope....even though the core European model has the storm developing too far off in the ocean, its ensemble runs have the storm closer to the coast giving us a chance at accumulating snow. (an ensemble is the base model run with different variations of inputs to test it against possible points of error.) Still however, no models at this time are as strong as the Canadian but that can always change. If your curious what the Canadian looks like here you go...

I think a storm will develop closer to the coast this weekend due to a few large scale climate signals I look at, but I am going to stop my thought process there because your guess is as good as mine when it comes to intensity. I want to see the European operational model come into agreement with its ensembles. If that occurs that is a good sign for this storm to form.

Check in tonight for finalized snowfall map and additional updates for weekend..

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