Monday, February 25, 2013

Monday Night: Storm Tomorrow Can Surprise in High Elevations

Wanted to focus tonight on the storm coming through our area tomorrow night. This will start off as snow/sleet/freezing rain for our northern counties, but there are some indications that we can see some accumulating snows at elevations over 1000 ft in North Jersey. Here is the latest accumulation printout from the North American Model...

Notice how it looks spotty, that is because it is showing the heaver snows over the mountains of pa, ny and even north jersey to an extent. Dark purple to pink is 6-10 inches. Keep in mind that there are some models showing a warmer storm with not much at all for accumulations in North Jersey as seen with the GFS snow print out..

The timing of this event is tomorrow night around 6 pm till about late Wednesday morning. Following this event, we will see snow showers for most of the remainder of the week and can pick up a dusting to an inch in some places.

Right now I am leaning towards a compromise between the two models shown above. I think we will see some accumulating snow above 1000 ft but not much more than a few inches, so figure I am going with a compromise between the two snowfall charts. Up in NY, PA, and New England however, I think the first snow chart is pretty accurate and some areas will see a foot or more from this especially in the ski areas. That makes this weekend ideal to go skiing up north. 

After this week I mentioned the chance at one more big mid Atlantic storm before this winter ends. That is still on the table and March 4th bears watching. As I explained in video last night the pattern is fully loaded and is capable of producing a blockbuster snowstorm before March 15th. That is due to a setup looking like this...

In a pattern shown above you have temperatures well below normal for the whole east coast even temps that can break freezing down in Florida  A trough this deep (shown by blue and green over east coast) is very rare and has resulted in our best snowstorms over the past 50 years. Whether or not that happens is out of my control  I just want to show the potential is there and if it does not happen its worth getting disappointed over if you like snow. Lets see what happens, I will keep following this trend.

Quick update tomorrow morning after I can see the European model for tomorrow storm and also the longer term..

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