Friday, February 15, 2013

Friday Morning Update

What a forecast this will be, its not to often that a forecast is this complicated. I recommend watching last nights video that goes into detail on the weekend situation. Last nights runs of the models after I cut the video did not back off on the threat of a close call for snow this weekend, but before I get to that lets get to what I do know which is that some snow will spread into our area tonight. 

Light Snow will spread into the area around 9pm and last through the night ending before daybreak.  Expect accumulations throughout our forecast area on the order of 1-2 inches maybe a little more for higher elevations of northwest jersey. Now that's the easy part of forecast.

The big question, which I showed in the video last night is does a bigger storm come close enough to our area to effect us Saturday and Sunday. Believe it or not a massive storm is going to form just off the Atlantic coast, but models just have it give us a glancing blow- maybe adding on an inch to what we get Friday night and up in new England a few inches (3-5). I am still uneasy about this due to the fact all week the models have had no handle on this situation. Yesterday the american model had it way out to sea and now this morning its setting up 100 miles closer to the coast. I am afraid this trend will continue and the runs today will affirm this. I do not think we will get a big snowstorm, but this system giving us a little more than a glancing blow, possibly a moderate accumulation is not out of the question. If this was to occur the time frame would be later Saturday night into Sunday. This is a low confidence forecast for Sat night into Sunday so for now, do not plan for there to be a storm. Just make sure you keep checking in to this blog especially later tonight to get a better idea of what will actually happen. By tonight the situation should be locked in and there will be no surprises.

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