Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Thursday Morning: Video From Last Night On Storm


This video overviews my latest assessment of the major storm developing for Friday into Saturday. Keep in mind that this is a high confidence forecast for Mass, CT, and RI. For North Jersey and NYC however, I will explain in the video the complexities that will make this forecast a challenge. Keep checking in daily for latest updates as new data comes in daily.

Update at 7:30am Thursday:

Overall after looking at the models that came in early this morning I like my overall idea I laid out in the video last night.  I think if you stick to the snowfall map I posted on Tuesday night that will end up being an accurate depiction of what is going to unfold. Latest runs since I cut the video now show in many cases a colder storm which can give NYC 6-12+ and interior North Jersey even 12-18. Central jersey looks like a 6-10 in a colder scenario from my base case. In the extreme case the Boston area can see over 3ft of snow from this. I will issue one more final map tonight which will be the one to go by, but I would be surprised if it changed much to the downside from my original posted Tuesday night which is this...

Check in throughout the day and tonight for updates, but this looks to be a historical storm for our region and should not be taken lightly. Timing will be Friday morning through Sat Morning...picking up in intensity Friday afternoon to its peak Friday night from 11pm-3am. If anything I have a gut feeling I might have to up these amounts, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

Now as an aside...this is why I created this blog because of poor forecasting like this..

Weather Channel Snowfall Map Issued Yesterday...(yes that's 1-3 inches for us)

Their brilliant forecast...

Rain and snow in the morning turning to rain in the afternoon. High 37F. Winds NE at 10-15 mph. Chance of precip 80%

Now here comes the flip's map

Today's Forecast

Rain and snow in the evening turning to all snow late. Low 21F. Winds N at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches.

So in less than 24hrs we go from 1-3 inches to 5-8 inches. I am just showing this to illustrate how alot of these commercial weather networks do not put any human insight into weather forecasting anymore. They just look at what ever the American model is showing for that day and then render a graphic and text forecast to the computers output. They rather focus on their marketing and theater with naming their storms, bringing on all these so called experts and removing all of the true forecasting out of the equation. This is the sole purpose I created this blog. I will not always be right, but at least in many cases I can keep you days ahead of this nowcasting that you are seeing. And the national weather service is not much better. They went from rain to 5-10 inches in the last 24 hrs. 

Check in throughout the day that's all for now...

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