Monday, December 10, 2012

Monday Night: BOOM!

Remember how for the last 10 days I have been talking about a pattern change and multiple shots at snow from the 15th of December on? Well lets lead with this valid next Wednesday...


source:weatherbell.com

and lets not forget about next Monday beforehand...


source:accuweather.com/professional

oh and did I mention after Christmas too?


So what does this all mean? It means the models are now finally after much waffling starting to get a hold on this pattern change that is taking place. Anytime there is a change in the weather pattern the models have a hard time ironing out all the details. However, by looking at a blend of the overall climate signals such as the NAO PNA and AO, you can still get an overall sense of what can happen. Where most people go wrong is they live and die based on every run of the modeling and get discouraged. So lets break down each one of these storm threats starting with the second graphic shown which is early next week storm #1:

This really could go anyway. For it to snow, we need to have the high pressure to the north build stronger and more towards eastern Canada. This will force storm to redevelop off the coast and supply the cold air necessary for snow. Right now, It looks as if that will be the most likely solution for Storm #2 which is the first graphic shown. If you look at the 1st graphic you can see the high pressure area over Canada feeding the storm with cold air and preventing it for escaping. I am very bullish on this storm and I think we will see snow  potentially very heavy for our area. As we get closer to the weekend I will start to take a crack at possible snowfall amounts. Finally, Storm # 3. This is very far out on the models so you cannot look into it too deeply. Could this storm form? Absolutely and I say that based on the trend in the upper air pattern over Canada. Lets take a look at the driver behind all of these storms which is that upper air pattern.

source:weatherbell.com

The red area over eastern Canada is the magic behind all of this. It allows the cold air to stay locked underneath (over our region) and when storms do form they tend to develop along the coast and bomb out. We want this red area to stay right over the Hudson Bay (west of Greenland) as shown above. Everyone remember last winter when we had no snow? Well the setup was the opposite of what is shown above.  This setup stays strong for at least 10 days starting on the 15th which is why all of these storms are not out of the question. Once you have the pattern in place its only natural for the atmosphere to produce disturbances. Even though this morning things did not look as promising, I said to stay patient and now you know why I have not backed off. Winter is coming and I would guess by the end of this week you will see the weather media start to finally pick up on all of this. Keep checking in daily and I will keep everyone one step ahead of all the public weather outlets. 


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