Good afternoon, this morning and afternoon's runs of the modeling has come into greater agreement and now most guidance shows a storm developing off the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night. This will be a moderate 8-12 hour snow event for areas west of the I-95 corridor with accumulations ranging from 3 to 6 inches locally 8. Areas east of I-95 will see snow but the accumulations will be less. Here is the snowfall forecast from the GFS model and I like the output.
For those of you who have been following this blog now can see how I plan to forecast these events very far in advance based on large scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere. This storm did not exist on the models until just a day or two ago but I wanted to show how it is possible to speculate and predict an event like this based on a few key variables long before any modeling picks up. You can see how I did this in my older posts. That really is the purpose of this blog, to keep everyone ahead of the curve when it comes to these events, and even tho this will not big a major storm, when that time comes I will be on top of it. If you noticed, the press and weather media did not start talking about this event until today. There are going to be many times where I am wrong, but at least this can be one source that people can read where a prediction is made and not changed based on every run of the models. I will post a little as we run up to the event and note if there are any significant changes from my forecast make today. I think we can see based on the temps today winter is here.